Performance of EuroSCORE II in Predicting Long-Term Mortality in Indian Patients Undergoing Valvular Heart Surgery: A Prospective Observational Study
Dr. Pawan kumar
, Dr. Aruna Bhagat
EuroSCORE II, Valvular Heart Surgery, Long-term Mortality, Indian Patients, Risk Prediction Model
Abstract
Background: EuroSCORE II is widely used for predicting short-term (in-hospital or 30-day) mortality in cardiac surgery. Its predictive validity for long-term (up to 1 year) mortality remains poorly studied in the Indian population, especially in the context of valvular heart surgery.
Objective: To evaluate the accuracy and discriminatory performance of EuroSCORE II in predicting long-term mortality in Indian patients undergoing valvular heart surgery.
Methods: A prospective observational study was conducted at Sher-i-Kashmir Institute of Medical Sciences (SKIMS), Srinagar, from 2018 to 2021. Fifty-six adult patients undergoing elective or urgent valvular heart surgery were enrolled. EuroSCORE II was calculated preoperatively. Patients were followed for mortality outcomes at 6 and 12 months postoperatively. Discriminatory performance was evaluated using AUC of the ROC curve, and calibration assessed via Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.
Results: Observed late mortality (6–12 months) was 7.1% (4 out of 56 patients). The area under the ROC curve for EuroSCORE II in predicting long-term mortality was 0.493 (95% CI 0.367–0.641), indicating poor discriminatory power. Calibration analysis was not significant (Hosmer-Lemeshow test).
Conclusions: EuroSCORE II fails to accurately predict long-term mortality in Indian valvular heart surgery patients. It is recommended that new models incorporating region-specific risk factors and long-term outcome data be developed.
"Performance of EuroSCORE II in Predicting Long-Term Mortality in Indian Patients Undergoing Valvular Heart Surgery: A Prospective Observational Study", IJSDR - International Journal of Scientific Development and Research (www.IJSDR.org), ISSN:2455-2631, Vol.10, Issue 9, page no.a446-a448, September-2025, Available :https://ijsdr.org/papers/IJSDR2509051.pdf
Volume 10
Issue 9,
September-2025
Pages : a446-a448
Paper Reg. ID: IJSDR_304889
Published Paper Id: IJSDR2509051
Downloads: 00078
Research Area: Health Science All
Country: Jammu , Jammu and Kashmir , India
ISSN: 2455-2631 | IMPACT FACTOR: 9.15 Calculated By Google Scholar | ESTD YEAR: 2016
An International Scholarly Open Access Journal, Peer-Reviewed, Refereed Journal Impact Factor 9.15 Calculate by Google Scholar and Semantic Scholar | AI-Powered Research Tool, Multidisciplinary, Monthly, Multilanguage Journal Indexing in All Major Database & Metadata, Citation Generator
Publisher: IJSDR(IJ Publication) Janvi Wave
